Why Raila’s Azimio Coalition will defeat Ruto’s UDA in 2022 polls
The divide in the National Assembly in relation to the Political Parties Amendment Bill that aims to introduce a raft of changes in the way political parties are organised and on how they transact their business can be simplified into pro coalition (Azimio la Umoja) versus anti coalition, represented by United Democratic Alliance (UDA) leaning members.
When Raila Odinga recently launched Azimio, even his most ardent supporters in ODM did not understand the masterstroke in the act.
Many assumed it was an ODM affair and appeared for the event with the usual pomp and bravado that has come to be associated with ODM and Baba...they expected to see a fire-breathing Baba dorned in Orange and surrounded by his close associates.
Some even assumed those in attendance from other parties were there to defect to ODM.
Long story short...a new dawn just came to be...a Baba who is reaching out to all Kenyans from all parts of this country to join Azimio la Umoja..calm colour blue...he was categorical, this was not his movement, it was for all Kenyans ...to walk together, to resolve issues of concern and grow together.
Politics is local and political parties are vehicles through which members pursue their aspirations.
Baba was alive to this. He has had a difficult time explaining to those he has in the past formed coalitions, Kalonzo Musyoka, Wycliff Mudavadi and company why ODM was always the biggest beneficiary of the coalition agreement.
It was established that the Political Parties Act had deep rooted gaps that did not allow for growth of political party internal democracy and coalition building.
This is the reason why the Bill to amend the PPA is that important.
It will make Azimio, not just a coalition but a Coalition Political Party (CPP) whose members (corporate) will be the respective political parties and it will field candidates across the country just as a standalone political party or a merger while still retaining the identity of the respective member parties.
If Jubilee is strongest in Kiambu then Azimio Candidate will be JP members while ODM will provide the same in Nyanza.
It will be a game changer. The leaders in North Eastern, Coast, Eastern etc will happily join Azimio and it will be unbeatable.
Unlike the Mwai Kibaki Rainbow Coalition, this will be a coalition of happy people who have come together to achieve, not to punish.
Nominations will now be healthier, only registered members will participate in their respective party primaries.
Small parties will not die off, they will be guaranteed of their share of the political parties fund.
Back to parliament, Ruto had fashioned his campaign around a Jubilee Party like structure where one is either in or out.
This has been overtaken by time. The DP himself together with his close allies are on record expressing regret at winding up URP.
Leaders across the country will not allow themselves to be at the mercy of his benevolence, or lack of it.
Moses Kuria and Mwangi Kiunjuiri have led the way.
Azimio will be the most popular outfit where every political party will claim a stake and thus feel at home.
Today marks the end of the UDA popularity. The numbers they claim to have count for nothing for every elective seat in any part of this country next year, UDA will be alone facing off with all the other political parties acting as a well-oiled machine.
Finally Wangui Ngirici vs Anne Waiguru scenario will replicate itself across the whole country and it will be the last nail in UDA coffin.
All Azimio leaning MPs wanted was for the Bill to pass, even by one vote...to pave way for Azimio Coalition Political Party.
UDA knew this and that is why their members pulled all manner of stunt but in the end they lost.